As we approach the transfer of power, Barack Obama's team designed the main lines of foreign policy the new administration. Undoubtedly the issue of Iraq, which has occupied an important place in the election campaign, is one of the most important. Thus, it has instructed the SWISH - South Waziristan Institute of Strategic Hermeneutics preparing a report focusing on the future of Al Qaeda and its implications for the security in the Middle East.
While the first part of the report can be accessed on-line believe that one of the most interesting paragraphs is as follows:
" The current situation in Iraq has been distorted by the" victory speech "of the Republicans during the election campaign. While violence has decreased, especially with regard to attacks on American soldiers, this can not be attributed entirely to troop increase ("the surge") but has a lot to do with a combination of factors such as the cease-fire of the militia and Muqtada As-Sadr, the Sunni groups' activities ("awakening groups") and separation increasingly consolidated among different religious groups of the population. The continuing violence, daily bombings and shootings occur, it is currently the city Mosul its epicenter.
The security agreement reached with Iraq specifies that the end of 2011 all American troops withdraw, which reflects one of the promises of the new president in his election campaign. However, it should be noted that strong pressures exist to maintain a strong military presence . While the United States, China and other industrialized countries to continue their current dependence on energy, security of the Persian Gulf region will remain important. 62% of global oil reserves and 39% of reserves world gas reserves are located in this area, if we add to the ex-Soviet states and Venezuela, the numbers reach 80% and 69% respectively.
Beyond what is said in public, security advisors of the new president insitirĂ¡n likely to maintain a military presence in the region, including Iraq. Since U.S. troops are not welcome in Saudi Arabia and can not ensure such an agreement with Iran, it is inconceivable a total output of Iraq. The United States has not built more Grandeel world embassy in Baghdad to leave it to the Ministry of Labor Iraq. "
This analysis may be somewhat shocking and even controversial, but no less interesting and suggestive.
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